Setting the Scene: Why the Bahrain Trophy Matters
The Newbury summer card on a Thursday in July might not scream showpiece occasion to the casual observer, but anyone who follows the staying division closely knows the Bahrain Trophy is one of the more quietly significant races on the calendar. At a mile and a half furlongs for three-year-olds only, it sits at a fascinating crossroads — testing whether a horse is genuinely staying on or simply getting away with a flat mile-six on talent alone.
Historically, winners of this race have gone on to frank the form in the St Leger, the Goodwood Cup, and even further afield in the Arc trials. Trainers who are serious about the staying route for a lightly raced three-year-old will often target this race specifically. With just five declared on good to firm ground and a prize pot of £200,000, there's no hiding place. That suits us as analysts — small fields mean the form is cleaner and the race shapes are easier to read.
Check out the full Newbury racecard for Thursday's complete card.
Contender-by-Contender Breakdown
Alderman (Richard Hannon / Pat Dobbs) — Rating 107
The highest-rated horse in the field and the one the market will likely gravitate toward first. Hannon has always had a knack for placing horses at exactly the right moment, and a rating of 107 gives Alderman a clear edge on official figures. Pat Dobbs takes the ride, and he knows the Hannon operation inside out — that stable confidence counts for something in a small field like this. The key question is whether Alderman has the stamina to see out a true-run mile and five on quick ground. He's shown class at shorter trips, and if there's any doubt about the trip, it might only emerge late in the straight.
Del Maro (Charlie Appleby / William Buick) — Rating 104
Godolphin's runner and one I'm very interested in. Charlie Appleby has been ruthlessly efficient at targeting these mid-summer staying contests with horses who look unexposed over the longer distances. William Buick is a rider who rarely gets on a Godolphin horse in a race like this without a genuine chance — he simply doesn't need to make up the numbers. A rating of 104 looks workable if Del Maro has been schooled to settle, and Buick is the master of that art. Good to firm ground at Newbury should suit a horse out of the Appleby yard — they tend to be well-balanced, athletic types who travel well on a fast surface.
Point of Law (John & Thady Gosden / James Doyle) — Rating 101
The Gosden yard — father and son — rarely send a horse to a Group 3 without believing it can be competitive. Point of Law sits on a mark of 101, which looks light on paper, but these Gosden three-year-olds are often ahead of their official ratings at this stage of the season. James Doyle is a polished rider who excels when he can dictate or sit just off the pace, and from draw three he's ideally placed to do exactly that. If Point of Law has a bit more up his sleeve than the handicapper currently knows about, he's a serious player.
Nil Bua Gan Dua (Joseph Patrick O'Brien / Ryan Moore) — Rating 98
The Irish raider from JP O'Brien's yard, and you never take an O'Brien horse lightly when Ryan Moore makes the trip. Moore doesn't cross the water for a day out — he comes to win. A rating of 98 is the lowest in the field alongside Galiyan, but O'Brien has a brilliant eye for a staying prospect and the horse's name — which translates loosely from Irish as 'never without a second' — suggests connections have a sense of humour and perhaps some quiet confidence. The draw in stall one means Moore can dictate his own terms, either leading or sitting just behind the early pace. On good to firm ground, Irish-trained horses with a bit of class can absolutely thrive at Newbury.
Galiyan (Andrew Balding / Oisin Murphy) — Rating 98
Andrew Balding is a trainer I have a lot of time for — he's thoughtful, patient, and rarely over-races his horses. Galiyan is the outsider on ratings, but Balding's record in these mid-tier Group races is solid, and Oisin Murphy is as good as it gets when he's fully switched on. The concern here is whether Galiyan has shown enough in his previous starts to suggest he's ready to compete at this level on quick ground over this trip. He's the one I want to see a bit more evidence on before getting carried away.
Going and Draw: Does It Matter Here?
Good to firm at Newbury in July is about as fair a surface as you'll find in British racing. The track rides true, there's no significant camber bias, and the ground rewards horses who travel well and have a proper stride. Over a mile and five furlongs, the draw is largely irrelevant — by the time the field reaches the first bend, positions will have been sorted naturally. Stall one (Nil Bua Gan Dua) gives Ryan Moore the option to lead cheaply if he wants it, but in a five-runner field, nobody's going to be buried or disadvantaged by where they break.
What the quick ground does do is put a premium on horses who are genuinely well within themselves — those who get lit up or pull hard will pay for it in the closing stages. That's a slight concern for Alderman if he's been campaigned at shorter trips and hasn't learned to switch off yet. For Del Maro and Point of Law, both from yards that produce beautifully schooled horses, the fast ground is a positive.
Value Pick and Potential Dangers
The danger is clearly Alderman — the ratings back him, the trainer is in form, and Dobbs rides with intelligence. If he gets the trip, he wins. But that 'if' is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
My value pick is Del Maro. Appleby and Buick in a five-runner Group 3 on fast ground, with a horse who looks to have the right profile for this trip — it's a combination that makes me uncomfortable fading at anything bigger than even money. If the market opens him up at a price, I'd be interested.
Point of Law is the each-way shout. The Gosden yard, Doyle in the saddle, a horse with likely improvement in him — at a potential price, he's worth a small each-way interest.
My Selection: Del Maro
Del Maro (e/w) is my pick for the 2026 Bahrain Trophy. Here's the logic in plain terms: Charlie Appleby doesn't run horses in Group races to make up the numbers, William Buick is at the top of his powers, and good to firm Newbury over a mile and five is exactly the kind of test that brings out the best in a well-made Godolphin three-year-old. The rating of 104 gives him something to find on Alderman, but I suspect Del Maro is ahead of that mark and this race will prove it.
If the market prices him generously — and it might, given the draw and Alderman's superior official rating — then this is a bet I'm comfortable standing behind. Nil Bua Gan Dua with Ryan Moore in the saddle is the horse I'm most nervous about as a threat; Moore from the front in a small field is always a dangerous proposition.
Selection: Del Maro (e/w)
Dangers: Alderman, Nil Bua Gan Dua
Each-way interest: Point of Law
Who is the favourite for the Bahrain Trophy Stakes 2026?
Based on official ratings, Alderman (rated 107) is likely to open as the market leader. Trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Pat Dobbs, he holds a clear advantage on the figures over his rivals. However, ratings don't always tell the full story in a small-field Group race, and Del Maro from the Appleby/Buick combination is expected to be well-supported once markets form.
Is Newbury a fair track for three-year-old staying races?
Newbury is widely regarded as one of the fairest tracks in Britain for staying three-year-olds. The long, sweeping straight rewards genuine stamina and a good cruising speed, while the good to firm ground that typically prevails in July ensures the surface is consistent and true. There are no significant draw biases over this distance, and the track tends to produce clear, informative form — making it an ideal venue for a race like the Bahrain Trophy.
What are the likely tactics in a five-runner Bahrain Trophy field?
With only five runners, the race is unlikely to be run at a breakneck gallop. Ryan Moore on Nil Bua Gan Dua from stall one may look to control the tempo from the front, which would suit horses who travel well and have a turn of foot. William Buick on Del Maro will likely sit just off the pace and pounce in the straight, while James Doyle on Point of Law tends to ride with a similar patient style. Alderman's tactics will depend on how he's been campaigned — if Hannon wants to test his stamina, they may ride him handy from early on.
