The Blue Riband of the Turf
Saturday's Derby at Epsom Downs represents the pinnacle of the three-year-old season. This is where reputations are made and legends born. The unique demands of Epsom's undulating track – that famous camber, the descent to Tattenham Corner, the punishing climb to the line – separate the good from the great.
With £2 million on offer and 14 runners declared, this year's renewal looks as competitive as any in recent memory. The going reads good to firm with soil moisture at 53%, which should suit the speedier types while still allowing stamina to tell in the final two furlongs.
I've been trackside for seventeen Derbys now, and what strikes me about this field is the depth. Yes, we have a clear ratings leader in Item, but behind him lurk three Ballydoyle runners who could easily turn the form book on its head come Saturday afternoon.
The Main Contenders
Item (Rating 117)
Andrew Balding's colt sits clear at the head of the market, and rightly so. That rating of 117 tells its own story – this is a horse who's already proven himself at the highest level. Jamie Spencer takes the ride, and his tactical nous could prove crucial from draw three.
The son of Frankel has that essential Derby blend of speed and stamina, and crucially, he's shown he can handle a turn of foot when it matters. Balding doesn't run horses in the Derby for the experience – when he brings one, they're ready to win.
Action (Rating 113)
The first of Aidan O'Brien's triple threat, Action carries the hopes of Ballydoyle alongside the booking of W. M. Lordan. That rating of 113 puts him firmly in the mix, and O'Brien's Derby record speaks for itself.
Draw 11 isn't ideal, but O'Brien's horses are schooled to perfection for Epsom's unique challenges. The stable's recent work reports suggest Action has been showing his best form at home, always a positive sign heading into a Classic.
Benvenuto Cellini (Rating 112)
Ryan Moore's mount represents serious danger. When Moore chooses his ride from the O'Brien arsenal, you sit up and take notice. The 'distance winner' flag against his name is crucial – this horse has already proven he stays the Derby trip in testing conditions.
From draw 12, Moore will need to use all his tactical brilliance, but if any jockey can overcome a wide berth at Epsom, it's him. The partnership between Moore and O'Brien in Classics has been devastatingly effective over the years.
Pierre Bonnard (Rating 109)
The third Ballydoyle runner completes O'Brien's hand, with Christophe Soumillon in the plate. That central draw of eight could prove a significant advantage, allowing Soumillon to track the pace and pounce when the moment's right.
At 109, he's not far behind the principals on ratings, and O'Brien wouldn't be running three if he didn't fancy at least one of them strongly.
Bay of Brilliance (Rating 107)
Ralph Beckett's runner represents the value angle in this race. Hector Crouch takes the ride from draw nine, and at odds likely to be significantly bigger than the main fancies, he could outrun his rating.
Beckett has been quietly confident about this horse's Derby credentials, and the trainer's record with three-year-olds this season has been impressive.
Draw and Going Analysis
The draw has thrown up some interesting angles. Item's low draw of three should allow Spencer to get a good position early, crucial on a track where getting shuffled back can prove fatal.
The three O'Brien runners are spread across the field – Action (11), Benvenuto Cellini (12), and Pierre Bonnard (8). This tactical spread suggests the master of Ballydoyle has a plan, likely using one as a pacemaker while keeping his main hope covered up.
That good to firm ground will suit the speedier types, but with Epsom's stamina test in the final quarter-mile, pure speed won't be enough. The horses who've shown they can quicken off a strong pace will have a significant advantage.
Value Picks and Dangers
While the market will focus on the big names, I'm keeping a close eye on Maltese Cross for William Haggas. Tom Marquand's booking catches the eye, and like Benvenuto Cellini, he carries the 'distance winner' flag. From draw one, he'll need luck in running, but Marquand excels at finding gaps when they matter.
James J Braddock for Joseph O'Brien represents another angle. The younger O'Brien has been making waves in the big races, and Dylan Browne McMonagle's 7lb claim could prove valuable if the handicapper has underestimated this horse.
The danger? Don't dismiss Christmas Day entirely. Another O'Brien runner might seem like overkill, but R. P. Whelan wouldn't be getting the leg-up unless the stable thought he had a real chance.
Who is the favourite for the Betfred Derby?
Item heads the betting and deservedly so. His rating of 117 puts him clear of his rivals on paper, and Andrew Balding's confidence in running him suggests the horse is in the form of his life. The market has him as a warm order, and it's hard to argue with that assessment.
Which jockey has the best Derby record?
Ryan Moore's Derby CV is exemplary, with multiple wins including some memorable Ballydoyle successes. His partnership with Aidan O'Brien in the big races has been hugely profitable for punters over the years. When Moore gets the pick of the O'Brien string, as he has with Benvenuto Cellini, it's usually significant.
What makes Epsom Downs so challenging?
Epsom Downs is unlike any other racecourse. The undulating nature of the track, with its famous downhill section followed by the climb to the line, tests every aspect of a horse's ability. The camber through Tattenham Corner catches out many, while the final two-furlong climb sorts out the stayers from the milers. It's a unique examination that only comes once a year.
The Verdict
This is shaping up as a cracking Derby. Item deserves favouritism on ratings and form, but I can't shake the feeling that one of the Ballydoyle trio will spoil the party. Ryan Moore's choice of Benvenuto Cellini speaks volumes, and that proven stamina gives him a crucial edge.
My selection is Benvenuto Cellini each-way. The combination of Moore's tactical genius, O'Brien's Classic preparation, and proven stamina over the trip makes compelling reading. Yes, the draw is wide, but Moore has overcome worse positions in Classics before.
For the value hunters, Maltese Cross each-way offers appeal at likely bigger odds. Haggas doesn't run Derby horses lightly, and Marquand's big-race temperament could prove decisive if the race develops into the cavalry charge we're expecting.
Check the full Epsom Downs racecard for all the runners and riders, but don't overthink this one. Class usually tells in the Derby, and Moore aboard a proven stayer looks the way to go.
