The Season's First Real Test
The BetMGM Lincoln Trial has quietly established itself as one of the most telling early season handicaps. Run over Windsor's testing mile and a quarter, it's where trainers discover whether their winter work has paid dividends. The £50,000 prize money attracts a proper field, and this Saturday's renewal looks as competitive as any in recent memory.
I've been watching this race for the better part of two decades, and the pattern rarely changes. The winner usually comes from the top half of the handicap – horses rated 95 or above have won seven of the last ten renewals. That immediately narrows our focus to the leading contenders.
The Market Leaders
La Botte arrives as the likely favourite, and Harry Eustace's four-year-old has legitimate claims. Rated 104, he's the class act in this field, but that 9st 12lb burden is no joke over this trip. Jamie Spencer takes the ride, which tells you everything about connections' confidence. Spencer doesn't waste his time on no-hopers, particularly this early in the season.
The worry with La Botte is that draw 10. Windsor can be kind to prominent racers, and from out there, Spencer will need to use the colt early or risk getting shuffled back. Given the weight burden, I'd prefer to see him drawn closer to the pace.
Two Tempting represents excellent each-way value at his likely odds. Jonathan Portman's seven-year-old is a course-and-distance winner, which counts for plenty around Windsor's unique figure-of-eight track. Rob Hornby knows this horse inside out, and that middle draw in stall 5 is perfect for tracking the early pace.
The gelding's rating of 100 looks workable off 9st 8lb. He's proven at the trip and handles most ground conditions. Sometimes in these early season handicaps, you want the horse that's simply ready to go, and Two Tempting fits that bill.
The Proven Windsor Performers
Kingdom Come brings course-and-distance form to the table, always a significant factor around this quirky track. Clive Cox has his string in good order early doors, and Rossa Ryan riding is another positive. The concern is that low draw in stall 2 – it could leave him with too much to do if they go steady early.
Regal Ulixes from the Andrew Balding yard deserves respect. The four-year-old is lightly raced and could be anything off a mark of 99. P. J. McDonald in the saddle suggests they mean business, though that wide draw in 12 is far from ideal. The headgear goes on for the first time, which could unlock improvement.
The Balding Second String
The Lost King is Balding's second runner, and you don't often see the Kingsclere trainer double-handed without good reason. This four-year-old gets the services of Oisin Murphy, which immediately puts him on the shortlist. The 92 rating looks lenient if he's improved over the winter.
Value Picks and Dark Horses
First Principle from the William Haggas stable catches the eye at likely bigger odds. The application of a tongue-tie suggests they've identified an issue, and Haggas horses often improve markedly for such equipment changes. Billy Loughnane on Superposition is another to note – Ed Dunlop's horses can be well handicapped early in the campaign.
Don't overlook Christian David from the Richard Hannon yard. The five-year-old has been kept to shorter trips recently, but breeding suggests this step up in distance could unlock improvement. The blinkers go on, which often sparks better efforts from Hannon-trained horses.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a cracking renewal with several horses holding legitimate chances. La Botte sets the standard but faces a stiff task from that draw under top weight. Two Tempting appeals as the value play – proven at the track, well-drawn, and handled by a jockey who knows him well.
For the selection, I'm siding with Two Tempting each-way. The seven-year-old has the experience to handle Windsor's peculiarities, and that form flag as a distance winner is crucial. Hornby will have him positioned perfectly from the middle draw, and the 100 rating looks fair.
Kingdom Come rates the biggest danger if handling that inside berth, while The Lost King could outrun his odds with Murphy aboard. Check the Windsor racecard for final declarations and betting moves.
Who is the favourite for the BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap Stakes?
La Botte is expected to head the market as the highest-rated runner in the field. Harry Eustace's four-year-old carries a rating of 104 and has Jamie Spencer booked to ride, making him the clear class act in this competitive handicap.
Which horses have the best course form at Windsor?
Two Tempting and Kingdom Come both arrive with proven course-and-distance form, a significant advantage around Windsor's unique figure-of-eight layout. Both horses have won previously at this track and trip, giving them a clear edge over rivals who are yet to prove themselves around these turns.
What impact will the draw have on the Lincoln Trial?
The draw could prove crucial in a competitive 12-runner field. Horses drawn in the middle (stalls 4-8) typically have the best positioning options, while the wide draws like La Botte in 10 and Regal Ulixes in 12 will need to be ridden more aggressively early to secure a good position.
