Setting the Scene
A midsummer Thursday at Folkestone might not sound like the most glamorous slot in the racing calendar, but the Buccellati Handicap Stakes has carved out a genuine reputation as one of the sharpest three-year-old sprint handicaps of the summer. Fifty thousand pounds in prize money, a competitive rating band of 0–95, and eighteen declared runners across a straight five furlongs — this is exactly the kind of race that separates the serious punters from the tourists. I've been down to Folkestone on a warm July afternoon enough times to know that the atmosphere in the paddock before a race like this crackles. Trainers don't travel for the scenery; they travel because the conditions suit their horse and the prize is worth having.
The going is Good to Firm, Good in places, which is about as fair a surface as you'll get for a flat five-furlong dash. No excuses on the day. Every horse gets a fair crack, and that matters enormously in a field this competitive.
Draw & Going Analysis
On Folkestone's straight five, the draw has historically shown a mild bias towards the stands side, which broadly favours the lower stalls. In a field of eighteen, that conversation gets more nuanced — you'll likely see two or three distinct groups forming, and the jockeys who position themselves on the right part of the track early will have a significant edge. Stalls one through six look attractive on paper. Old Is Gold (stall 1), Naana's Shadow (stall 2), Call Margot (stall 3), Schrodinger's Cat (stall 4), and Coyy (stall 5) all get to exploit that low-draw advantage if the stands rail is the place to be.
Conversely, high-drawn runners aren't entirely without hope on Good to Firm ground — the surface tends to ride consistently across the width of the track when it's dry, which can reduce the bias. Still, I'd want to be drawn no higher than twelve in a field this big. That puts River Spey (17), Kolkata Knight (18), and Dazzling Haze (16) in a trickier spot, regardless of their form credentials.
The Leading Contenders
Schrodinger's Cat (Draw 4, 9-9) — Oliver Stammers
Top-rated alongside Baker Blue at 95, Grant Tuer's gelding carries the joint-top weight but does so from a lovely low draw. He's a proven distance winner and Stammers has been in cracking form this summer. Tuer doesn't run horses in races like this without a plan, and the combination of low stall, proven five-furlong form, and a sharp jockey booking makes this one hard to ignore. He's my idea of the horse to beat.
Baker Blue (Draw 13, 9-9) — Pat Dobbs
The other joint-top-rated runner, and Pat Dobbs is a jockey who consistently gets the best out of sprinters. The concern here is purely the draw — stall 13 in a field of eighteen on a track that tends to favour the low numbers is a handicap in itself. Dylan Cunha's yard has been ticking along nicely, and Baker Blue is clearly talented, but he'll need to overcome a positional disadvantage. If the track rides evenly across its width, he's right in this. If there's any rail bias, he may find himself fighting the tide.
Naana's Shadow (Draw 2, 9-8) — Oisin Murphy
Here's where it gets interesting. Katie Scott's filly drops just a pound below the joint-top weights, gets a brilliant low draw, and has Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Murphy doesn't need an introduction — he's the kind of rider who can manufacture half a length from nothing, and on a track where positioning is everything, that matters. Naana's Shadow is a proven five-furlong winner, and fillies at this trip on fast ground are often underestimated in the market. She's my value proposition for each-way punters.
Manatee Mehmas (Draw 11, 9-7) — Daniel Tudhope
David O'Meara and Daniel Tudhope are a formidable partnership and Manatee Mehmas arrives here rated 93 with distance-winning form. The draw at 11 is workable rather than ideal, but Tudhope is smart enough to find a racing line. O'Meara tends to target these summer handicaps with horses who are ready to go — he's not a trainer who wastes entries. Respect him at a price.
Dazzling Haze (Draw 16, 9-5) — Marco Ghiani
Robert Cowell trains sprinters for a living and Dazzling Haze has the profile of a filly who could outrun her odds. The issue, as with Baker Blue, is the draw. Stall 16 is a tough ask in a big field on this track. Marco Ghiani is an underrated pilot who rides Folkestone well, and if he can find a pitch on the favoured part of the track quickly, she could outperform expectations. Treat as a saver rather than a primary selection.
One And Gone (Draw 12, 9-0)
The only horse in the field carrying both a course winner and distance winner flag. That combination is not to be dismissed lightly in a handicap like this. Ian Williams has brought him here for a reason, and Ryan Kavanagh is a capable jockey on this type of track. Rated just 86, he's got weight on his side relative to the market leaders. If the pace is strong up front, a horse who already knows how to win around here could come late and mug them. He's my each-way outsider.
Value Picks & Dangers
The market will likely gravitate towards Schrodinger's Cat and Baker Blue at the head of the betting given their joint-top ratings. But ratings alone don't win races — draw, going, and trainer intent all feed into the picture.
- Best Bet: Schrodinger's Cat — low draw, proven form, hot jockey booking.
- Each-Way Value: Naana's Shadow — Murphy in the saddle, low draw, filly allowance, likely to be bigger in the market than she deserves.
- Outsider to Note: One And Gone — course and distance form at a lenient weight.
- Danger: Manatee Mehmas — O'Meara/Tudhope combo is always dangerous when they make the trip.
My Selection
I'm siding with Schrodinger's Cat as my headline selection. Stall 4 on a track that tends to favour the low numbers, proven at the trip, and Oliver Stammers has been riding with real confidence this season. Grant Tuer doesn't throw his horses into £50k handicaps without believing they're ready. The joint-top weight is a fair reflection of his ability — it's not punitive.
For each-way purposes, Naana's Shadow is the one I'd be adding to the slip. Oisin Murphy from stall 2 at five furlongs on fast ground — that's a combination that writes its own argument. Katie Scott's filly is proven at the distance and will likely drift in the market simply because she's a filly taking on the geldings. That's where the value lives.
Check the full Folkestone racecard for latest market moves and any overnight declarations before committing your stake.
Who is the favourite for the Buccellati Handicap Stakes?
At the time of writing, the market has yet to fully form, but Schrodinger's Cat and Baker Blue are the joint-top-rated runners at 95 and will likely head the betting. My preference between the two is Schrodinger's Cat on draw grounds alone — stall 4 versus stall 13 is a meaningful difference in a field of eighteen on this track.
Does the draw matter at Folkestone over 5 furlongs?
Yes, meaningfully so in large fields. Folkestone's straight five has historically shown a tendency to favour runners racing on the stands side, which broadly corresponds to the lower-numbered stalls. On Good to Firm ground the bias can be less pronounced than on softer going, but in a field of eighteen I'd still want to be drawn in the bottom half. Horses drawn in stalls 14–18 will need a strong pace and a clean run to overcome the positional disadvantage.
Is Naana's Shadow worth backing each-way?
I think so. She's a proven five-furlong winner drawn in stall 2 with Oisin Murphy aboard — three factors that individually would attract attention, and together make a compelling each-way case. Fillies in mixed-sex sprint handicaps are often underestimated in the market, particularly when they're taking on geldings. If she's returned at 8/1 or bigger, she represents genuine each-way value in a race where the low draw could prove decisive.
