A Quality Handicap to Start the Weekend
The CAA Stellar Great Cheshire Handicap has quietly become one of the better Class 2 handicaps on the calendar. Running at Cheltenham on Friday afternoon, it attracts the sort of progressive middle-distance performers that make for compelling handicap betting. The £45,000 prize money ensures connections take it seriously, and with ratings spanning from 76 to 103, we've got a proper competitive heat.
I've seen this race won by future Group performers and seasoned handicap specialists alike. The 1m2f70y trip at Cheltenham demands stamina and tactical nous – horses need to handle the undulations and time their challenge perfectly. With good ground forecast, we should see the field well strung out, making for an honest gallop.
The Market Leaders
Great David tops the weights and deservedly heads the market. This James Tate-trained four-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar company, and the booking of James Doyle suggests connections fancy their chances. His rating of 102 puts him right where he needs to be for this grade. The colt showed real promise when winning over this distance last time, and crucially, he's unexposed at the trip. Draw six gives Doyle options, and I suspect we'll see patient tactics from the front rank.
El Burhan brings course and distance form to the table – always a significant edge at a track like Cheltenham. George Boughey's gelding has been consistent without being spectacular, but his rating of 100 looks workable off 9-9. Billy Loughnane knows the horse well, and the application of a tongue tie suggests they're leaving no stone unturned. Draw seven keeps him handy, and his proven ability to handle Cheltenham's demands makes him a logical choice.
Respond represents the Andrew Balding yard, always respected in this type of contest. The four-year-old gelding carries the same weight as El Burhan but comes in fresh, which could be crucial late in the piece. Oisin Murphy's presence in the saddle speaks volumes – top jockeys don't take these rides lightly. The hood is an interesting addition, suggesting they're looking to sharpen his focus.
The Dangers and Value Plays
Auld Toon Loon might be seven years old, but Tom Dascombe's gelding knows his way around a track. Course and distance form puts him firmly in the mix, and his rating of 97 could prove lenient if he's back to his best. Pierre-Louis Jamin has been riding with confidence lately, and draw 14 isn't necessarily a disadvantage over this trip at Cheltenham.
Whip Cracker catches the eye purely because Ryan Moore has chosen to ride him. The Richard Hughes-trained gelding hasn't set the world alight lately, but Moore's booking suggests there's more to come. At 95, his rating looks competitive, and Hughes has a knack for getting his horses ready for the big occasions.
Down the weights, Janey Mackers offers each-way value. David Menuisier's filly gets the weight allowance and has shown she stays the distance. At 92, she's well treated if reproducing her best form, and Hector Crouch rides her with confidence.
Going and Draw Analysis
Good ground suits most of this field, though it might just favour the more progressive types over the seasoned campaigners. Cheltenham's undulating track means the draw isn't as crucial as at some venues, but those drawn in single figures have a slight edge in terms of getting a good early position.
The pace should be honest enough with fourteen runners, though I suspect we'll see the field split into two groups – those wanting to be handy and those happy to come from off the pace. With the ground riding true, stamina will be at a premium in the final furlong.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a cracking renewal with several horses holding legitimate chances. Great David sets the standard and looks the most likely winner, but the value might lie elsewhere. I'm drawn to El Burhan as the selection – his course form gives him a significant edge, and the booking of Loughnane suggests confidence from the Boughey camp.
For the each-way players, Janey Mackers offers solid value at longer odds. Her distance form is solid, and the weight allowance could prove crucial in a tight finish. Check the latest Cheltenham racecard for any late market moves.
Selection: El Burhan (win), Janey Mackers (each-way)
Who is the favourite for the Cheshire Handicap?
Great David heads the betting as the top-rated runner in the field. The James Tate-trained four-year-old carries 9-11 and has shown consistent form at this level, making him the logical market leader.
Which horses have course form at Cheltenham?
El Burhan and Auld Toon Loon both boast course and distance form, giving them a significant advantage. Cheltenham's unique characteristics mean previous experience of the track is invaluable, particularly over this staying distance.
What impact will the good ground have on the race?
Good ground should suit the majority of the field and ensure we see an honest gallop. It favours the more progressive types and should allow the best horse on the day to win, rather than benefiting those who need specific conditions to show their best form.
