Setting The Scene
Friday afternoon at Ascot brings us a cracking Class 2 handicap that's become a reliable pointer for three-year-olds stepping up in grade. The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Stakes might not carry the prestige of Royal Ascot, but it's the sort of race that separates the wheat from the chaff among the middle-distance juveniles.
With £45,000 on offer and a rating band stretching from 77 to 96, this looks a proper test. The going description of Good to Good to Firm in places with a GoingStick reading of 8 suggests we'll see the track playing fair – no excuses for the connections afterwards.
The Market Leaders
Colori Forever tops the weights at 9st 9lb and brings solid credentials from Marco Botti's yard. The Italian trainer has a knack with three-year-olds at this level, and Marco Ghiani takes the ride. That combination has clicked before, and Colori Forever's rating of 96 suggests he's already mixing it at a decent level. The worry is draw 10 – more on that shortly.
May Angel represents the Gosden father-and-son team with William Buick in the saddle. That's a partnership that commands respect in any company, and the gelding's rating of 95 puts him right in the mix. Buick's record at seven furlongs here is exemplary, and you sense this horse has been aimed at this race for some time.
Synners Kid drops down from Lemos De Souza's stable with Silvestre De Sousa doing the steering. The Brazilian trainer doesn't have runners here every week, so when he does pitch up, it pays to take notice. The gelding's rating of 91 gives him every chance off 9st 4lb.
The Draw Angle
Seven furlongs at Ascot can be tricky from a tactical standpoint. The straight track favours those who can position themselves handy to the pace, and historically, low numbers have held a slight edge. That immediately puts question marks against both Colori Forever (10) and May Angel (9).
Angel of Anfield in stall 3 and Goldwork in 4 could benefit from their inside berths, especially if the pace is strong. Rossa Ryan knows how to make the most of a good draw, and Tom Clover's gelding looks attractively weighted on 8st 12lb.
The going stick reading of 8 suggests the surface is riding true, which should help the better horses overcome any positional disadvantages. Still, in a tight handicap like this, every half-length counts.
Value Picks and Dangers
At the prices, Albaydaa makes plenty of appeal for William Haggas. The filly gets the sex allowance and has Tom Marquand aboard – a jockey who's been in red-hot form recently. Her rating of 83 might underestimate her true ability, and fillies can often improve rapidly through the season.
Aqua Bear from Ian Williams' yard is another to consider. The trainer excels with three-year-olds in competitive handicaps, and this gelding's form figures suggest he's ready to strike. Callum Hutchinson takes 3lb off the back, which brings the effective weight down to a manageable level.
The danger could come from Ay Up Duck. Hollie Doyle's presence suggests Michael Appleby fancies his chances, and the gelding has been running consistently without quite getting his head in front. Sometimes these horses just need the right race to fall into place.
Who is the favourite for the Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap Stakes?
The market suggests Colori Forever will start favourite, though May Angel won't be far behind in the betting. Both horses bring solid form to the table, but the draw positions leave room for doubt. Expect the early money to centre on these two, with Synners Kid attracting support from those looking for each-way value.
Which jockey has the best record in this race?
While this specific race doesn't have decades of history, William Buick's overall record in similar contests at Ascot speaks for itself. The champion jockey has an uncanny ability to find the right position in these competitive handicaps, and his partnership with the Gosden team gives May Angel every chance of success.
What are the key factors for success in seven-furlong handicaps at Ascot?
Pace positioning proves crucial over this trip. Horses need to be within striking distance turning for home, as the final two furlongs can be testing for those coming from too far back. The ability to quicken off a strong pace often separates the winners from the also-rans, which is why trainers place such emphasis on getting the right jockey for these assignments.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a fascinating puzzle with several viable answers. While the market leaders have obvious claims, the draw concerns and potential value elsewhere make this far from straightforward.
My selection is Albaydaa each-way. Haggas has his string in excellent order, Marquand is riding with supreme confidence, and the filly's rating looks workable. The draw in 8 isn't ideal, but it's better than the top two in the betting.
For those wanting a bigger price, Angel of Anfield could outrun his odds from the good draw. Ryan knows how to make every yard count, and Clover's stable is ticking over nicely.
Check the latest odds and runners on the full Ascot racecard before placing your bets. In handicaps like this, the market often tells its own story as the day progresses.
