The first Saturday in May is a big deal on the racing front. There are many Group 1 events in the British flat season, but few carry such significance as the five contests which fall into the Classic category. Each of the 2000 Guineas, 1000 Guineas, Derby, Oaks, and St. Leger offer significant prize money, but their value extends far beyond the pounds dished out on the day – particularly for the colts. Come home in front in a Classic, and a lucrative career at stud is all but guaranteed.
Taking place over the straight mile at Newmarket, the £525,000 2000 Guineas fires the opening salvo of the 2025 Classic season and, as ever, looks set to attract a field of regally bred sorts from the leading yards in the sport.
Will the juvenile form from 2024 carry through to 2025? Will one of the recent trial winners prove up to the task? Or will the winner emerge from left field? All will be revealed on Saturday afternoon.
Like most racing fans, we find it hard to resist a punt on the first truly great race of the season, but who should carry our cash? Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024, highlight a selection of the strongest stats and trends, and pick out our best betting options for 2025.
Fate of the Favourite
With only two winning favourites in the past ten years, the 2000 Guineas has proven to be a tricky puzzle for punters to unravel. A £1 level stakes bet on the jolly over this period returned a loss of £2.50. Six of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the remaining four priced between 10/1 and 16/1. Notable Speech (2024) and Poetic Flare (2021) were the joint longest-price winners over this period.
Top Trainers
Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in 2000 Guineas history with ten wins. As such, it is no surprise to see the Ballydoyle maestro topping the table over our ten-year sample. O’Brien has five runners among the current entries. However, Twain is extremely unlikely to run, whilst Camille Pissarro, Henri Matisse, and Serengeti are only possible starters. Of the O’Brien quintet, Expanded has emerged as the clear number one.
Charlie Appleby looks set to be represented by Shadow Of Light and Ruling Court, whilst fellow two-time winner Andrew Balding relies on Jonquil. Jim Bolger is without an entry in 2025, but Seagulls Eleven remains in the field for Hugo Palmer.
Leading Sires: The Galileo Factor
Much as with the trainer’s table, the list of leading sires is topped by the names we would expect. The most influential sires of the modern era, Galileo and Dubawi, were the only stallions to produce more than one winner over our sample period. Interestingly, neither is represented in 2025.
With Galileo’s final crop numbering only 13, it isn’t too surprising that the legendary stallion isn’t directly represented this year. However, the influence of the Coolmore great is stronger than the stats initially suggest. Over our sample, two winners were sired by Galileo, one was by one of his sons, three were out of a Galileo mare, and one was out of a mare by Galileo’s son Teofilo. The 2025 qualifiers are Shadow Of Light (out of a New Approach mare), Green Impact (out of a Galileo mare), Expanded (out of a Galileo mare), and Scorthy Champ (out of a New Approach mare).
Rating of Winner
The average pre-race rating dipped slightly over the course of our sample, falling from around 117 to around 114. All ten winners had already achieved a rating of at least 109. Cosmic Year, Yah Mo Be There, and Serengeti fall short of that standard in 2025. Tornado Alert has not yet been handed a rating by the official handicapper.
Stamina Considerations
With only half of the winners in our sample having previously scored over 1m, a win at the distance isn’t essential. However, all the winners had previously come home in front over at least 7f. Only Yah Mo Be There falls down on this trend in 2025.
Top Level Experience
The results in our sample suggest that stepping up to land the 2000 Guineas without a previous outing at the top level is a tall order. Six of the ten winners had previously won in Group 1 company, whilst eight of ten had at least lined up in a Group 1 contest.
Finishing Position Last Time
If a horse is to claim a race as tough as the 2000 Guineas, logic suggests that they ought to be up to winning a lesser event on their previous outing, and most of the winners in our sample were. Seven of ten also won last time, whilst nine of ten finished in the top three. 2023 champ Chaldean was the only exception, having unshipped Frankie Dettori at the start of the Greenham Stakes.
Other Factors
Seven of ten winners were making their seasonal reappearance
Six of ten winners had three or four previous career starts
The Futurity Trophy and Dewhurst Stakes were the most informative juvenile races – each producing three winners
Betting Recommendations: Champ by name, Champ by Nature?
At the end of our analysis, only one horse scored six out of six on our trends, from their trainer to the finishing position last time out. That horse is Middle Park Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes champ, Shadow Of Light. The step up to a mile is a question mark, but sire Lope De Vega scored in Group 1 company over 1m2½f, whilst dam Winter’s Moon is by Derby winner New Approach. The forecast quick ground is of more concern, as Shadow Of Light has posted his best efforts on soft.
Expanded, Henri Matisse, Scorthy Champ, and Twain scored five out of six. However, if reports are to be believed, Henri Matisse and Twain are unlikely to line up, whilst Expanded finished behind Shadow Of Light in the Dewhurst – albeit on only his second career start. All of which leaves the Joseph O’Brien-trained Scorthy Champ. Shadow Of Light rates the selection should the ground be good to soft or softer on the day, whilst I like Henri Matisse if allowed to take his chance on a quick surface. However, as things stand, the best each-way option is the 2024 National Stakes winner, Scorthy Champ.
Recommended Win Bet - Scorthy Champ @ 7/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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