The first Saturday in June is a big day on the racing front. There are five Classic contests in the British racing season, and many more around the world, but none quite match up to the historic Epsom Derby. Oft imitated but never bettered, the 1m4f contest continues to exert an incomparable influence upon the future shape of the breed.
First run in back in 1780, when King George III sat atop the throne, the inaugural edition fell to the legendary Diomed. Since that debut over 240 years ago, the race has produced countless further stallions, including the greatest of them all, Galileo, who claimed the 2001 renewal.
To master the twists, turns, and undulations of Epsom Downs, a colt must display balance, tactical speed, stamina, and, above all, class. It is with good reason that the greatest Classic of them all is known as the ultimate test of the thoroughbred.
In addition to weaving an inescapable seam through the history of British racing, the Derby is also one of the biggest betting heats of the year and just about the closest the flat comes to matching the popularity of the Aintree Grand National.
Like many punters up and down the land, we will be backing our judgment in the 2025 edition of this fabulous race. But what does it take to win? Here, we look back at the ten editions between 2015 and 2024, highlight the standout stats and trends, and pick out our best bet for the 2025 Epsom Derby.
Fate of the Favourite
Three of the ten editions in our sample were landed by the market leader, representing a solid 30% strike rate. Jolly backers held their own over this period, with a £1 level stakes punt on the favourite returning a profit of a whopping 13p. Six of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, and two were priced at 16/1. The big shocks came courtesy of 25/1 shot Serpentine (2020) and Wings Of Eagles (2017), who defied odds of 40/1.
Recent Run an Advantage
Serpentine claimed the Derby only seven days after breaking his maiden at the Curragh in 2020, whilst Harzand scored following a break of 55 days in 2016. Every other winner had appeared at the track within the last 21-28 days. Notably, each of those eight winners arrived on the back of an appearance in a recognised Derby trial. Given the way the calendar panned out in 2025 - with the 2000 Guineas 35 rather than 28 days before the Derby - we will award a trends point to those who appeared in a trial within the last 35 days.
Group Race Experience
Only two of the ten winners in our sample had previously claimed a Group 1 event. That’s a little lower than anticipated. However, half of the winners had at least lined up in Group 1 company, while nine of ten had appeared at Group 3 level or above.
Going the Distance
Interestingly, none of the ten winners in our sample had previously scored over 1m4f, with only half boasting a win over 1m2f+ on their CV. This makes nailing down a distance stat a little tricky. However, with nine of ten winners having won over at least a mile, we will use this as our next trend.
Pattern Class Performers
The Aidan O’Brien duo of Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy (2024) famously bounced back from woeful 2000 Guineas displays to claim the Derby. However, every other winner in our sample had posted a solid top 3 effort on their most recent racecourse appearance.
Few Miles on the Clock
There has been no fixed path to Derby success in recent years. Desert Crown scored on only his third career start in 2022, whilst the experienced Anthony Van Dyck (2019) and Masar (2018) had already appeared eight times at the track. Overall, having relatively few miles on the clock appears to be an advantage, with eight of the ten winners arriving with 2-5 previous outings.
Top Trainers
The past ten editions were shared between only five trainers. As the most successful trainer in the history of the race, it is no surprise to see Aidan O’Brien out on his own at the top of the table, with Godolphin number one Charlie Appleby the only other handler with more than one win to his name. Of the five trainers on our list, the now-retired Sir Michael Stoute is the only man not represented among the entries for 2025.
The Galileo Factor
There are many reasons why Galileo is the greatest stallion of all time. Not least of which is his impressive record in this event. With each of the past seven winners boasting the 2001 Derby winner as their sire, grandsire, or damsire, it makes sense to award an additional point to those runners who boast Galileo in their immediate pedigree.
Betting Recommendations: Lambourn Looks Good for Ballydoyle
Of the 25 runners who remain in the 2025 edition of the Derby, Damysus, Puppet Master, Purview, and Ruling Court score six out of seven on our key trends, whilst market leader Delacroix and outsiders Nightwalker and Tennessee Stud earn five points. However, there is one standout contender, and he goes by the name of Lambourn.
Whilst it is initially tempting to look past a runner who is by no means the Ballydoyle number one, history suggests that we shouldn’t be so quick to do so. Looking back at the winners in our sample, Anthony Van Dyck was only the third best of the Ballydoyle runners in 2019, Serpentine had three stablemates ahead of him in 2020, whilst Wings Of Eagles was deemed the fifth most likely O’Brien-trained winner in 2017.
A closer look at Lambourn’s form also offers encouragement. In five career outings, his only blip came when hating the application of blinkers in the Beresford Stakes. A Listed class winner at two, he caught the eye in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal return when going down by 2¼l to Delacroix, despite losing at least that amount of distance courtesy of a wide trip throughout.
The way he hit the line in that 1m2f event suggested that a step up in trip may see him in a better light, and so it proved. Tackling the Chester Vase last time out, he looked to have work to do turning for home but powered to the line to mow down Lazy Griff. That was a noteworthy effort, considering the Charlie Johnston runner quickened from the front and wasn’t stopping. At 20/1, we like Lambourn's chances of at least going close to emulating his Derby-winning sire, Australia.
- Recommended Win Bet: Lambourn each way @ 20/1 with Betfred
Our Top UK Betting Sites for the 2025 Epsom Derby:
 (1).webp "10Bet")
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
