A Proper Test of Handicapping
The Imperial Cup has carved out quite a reputation since moving to Ripon, and this year's renewal looks as competitive as any. Twenty-three runners declared for Saturday's £100k prize, with the handicapper doing his usual sterling job of bunching them together.
At just over a mile and three-quarters, this is stamina handicapping at its finest. The good to soft ground will suit the majority, though those soft patches on the shared ground could catch out anything not staying on properly. I've walked this course more times than I care to remember, and when it's riding testing like this, class usually rises to the surface.
The Market Leaders
Fingle Bridge tops the weights on 12-0, and rightly so. Gavin Sheehan gets the leg-up for Olly Murphy, and this eight-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar company all season. His rating of 139 tells the story - this is a horse who's been mixing it at the highest level. The concern is whether he can give lumps of weight away to some talented younger horses, but his distance-winning form suggests he'll see out every yard.
Knickerbockerglory would have been a major player, but Dan Skelton's ten-year-old is a non-runner. That's opened things up considerably and removed one of the most reliable course winners from the equation.
Gibbs Island represents excellent value at the weights. Tom Lacey's five-year-old carries just 11-9 off a rating of 134, and that's a workable mark for a horse with his profile. Stan Sheppard takes the ride, and I like the hood going on - suggests connections are pulling out all the stops.
The Dangers in the Pack
Don't overlook Go Dante from the same Olly Murphy stable. This ten-year-old has course-winning form at Ripon and knows exactly what's required around here. Sean Bowen is a shrewd booking, and at 11-7, he's getting plenty of weight from the top-rated horses.
Ooh Betty brings mare's form to the table, and Ben Jones has been riding with real confidence lately. Ben Clarke's eight-year-old has course form and stays well - exactly what you want in a race like this. The tongue-tie suggests they're leaving nothing to chance.
Nardaran catches the eye down the weights. Paul Nicholls doesn't send many to Ripon without good reason, and Harry Cobden's presence tells you everything about their intentions. This five-year-old has both course and distance form, and at 11-1, he's getting a proper chance from the handicapper.
Ground and Pace Considerations
The good to soft going with soft patches will play to the strengths of the genuine stayers. In my experience, when Ripon rides like this, you want a horse that travels kindly and can quicken off a strong pace rather than one that needs to be niggled along.
With 23 runners, there should be no shortage of pace, though I suspect it won't be breakneck early. The long run-in here sorts out the men from the boys, and anything not staying on strongly from the two-furlong pole will be found out.
The absence of Knickerbockerglory removes a natural pace-setter, which could suit those that like to come from off the speed. I'm particularly interested in anything trained by the Twiston-Davies team - they know how to place their horses in big handicaps like this.
The Verdict
This is a proper puzzle, but I keep coming back to Gibbs Island as the answer. Tom Lacey's five-year-old is on a workable mark, has the right profile for this type of race, and should improve for the step up in trip. The hood going on suggests connections are confident, and Stan Sheppard is more than capable of delivering when it matters.
For the each-way players, Nardaran makes plenty of appeal. Paul Nicholls' record in big handicaps speaks for itself, and this horse has the right course and distance credentials. At the likely odds, he represents solid value.
The danger could well be Go Dante if the Murphy stable have him primed. His course form gives him a significant edge, and Sean Bowen's booking suggests he's fancied to run a big race.
Check the full field and latest odds on the Ripon racecard before making your final decision.
Who is the favourite for the Imperial Cup?
Fingle Bridge heads the market as the highest-rated runner on 139. Olly Murphy's eight-year-old carries top weight of 12-0 but has been consistent at this level all season. His distance-winning form makes him the logical market leader, though the weight burden is significant in such a competitive field.
Which horses have the best course form at Ripon?
Go Dante and Ooh Betty both have winning course form, giving them a significant advantage. Nardaran also has course-winning form and represents the powerful Paul Nicholls stable. Course form is often crucial at Ripon's unique track, where local knowledge can make the difference in tight finishes.
What impact will the ground conditions have?
The good to soft going with soft patches will favour the genuine stayers and could catch out anything not seeing out the trip properly. The testing conditions should play to the strengths of older, more experienced horses who can handle the demanding ground. Expect the pace to be steady early before quickening significantly in the final three furlongs.
