Setting the Scene at Ripon
Saturday's Ripon card serves up a proper test for the mares with the British Stallion Studs EBF Listed contest taking centre stage. This £30,000 prize represents a significant opportunity for connections to bag some black type, and the quality of the field reflects that importance.
National Hunt flat races at this level often serve as stepping stones to bigger things. I've seen plenty of winners from similar contests go on to make their mark over obstacles. The 1m 7f 216y trip sorts out the stayers from the pretenders, and with good to soft ground underfoot, stamina will be at a premium.
Thirteen have been declared for this, which tells you everything about the prize money on offer. When you get fields this size for a mares' Listed race, you know there's serious money to be won.
The Leading Contenders
Ti'mamzel carries the 5lb penalty as the only runner weighted above 11st 2lb, which immediately marks her out as the one to beat. The Gary & Josh Moore-trained five-year-old has Caoilin Quinn in the plate, and that partnership has clicked before. The distance winner tag alongside her name suggests she's proven at this trip, which is crucial on this undulating Ripon course.
What I like about Ti'mamzel is the Moore stable's record with mares at this level. They don't run them in Listed company unless they fancy their chances. The penalty suggests recent success, and if she's improving, that extra weight won't stop her.
Babs represents Henry Oliver and gets the services of Kielan Woods. Another distance winner, she's clearly suited to this trip. Oliver's yard has been in decent form lately, and Woods knows how to get mares settled and travelling. At 11st 2lb, she's getting 4lb from the topweight, which could prove decisive.
Burds of A Feather is an interesting runner for Max Comley. David Bass takes the ride, and he's particularly effective on mares who need positive riding. The tongue tie suggests she's had breathing issues in the past, but if that equipment does the trick, she could outrun her odds.
The Dan Skelton pair of Capricciose and Lune Brillante demand serious respect. Skelton wouldn't run two in a Listed race unless both had genuine chances. Charlie Todd partners Capricciose while Harry Skelton rides Lune Brillante. When a trainer puts his son on one of two runners, that usually tells you which one he fancies most.
Gidge for Fergal O'Brien catches the eye as the only six-year-old in the field with proven credentials. Jonathan Burke has been riding with confidence lately, and older mares often have the edge in stamina tests like this.
Ground and Course Considerations
The good to soft, good in places going will suit the majority of this field. These are National Hunt-bred mares who'll relish the cut in the ground. The mention of "some soft places on shared ground" is worth noting – that's where the chase course crosses the flat track, and it can catch horses out if they're not expecting the deeper going.
Ripon's undulations are notorious for finding out horses who aren't genuine stayers. The climb from the home turn to the line is particularly testing over this trip. Horses who've shown their best form on flat, galloping tracks might struggle here.
The lack of draw numbers suggests this isn't a race where track position will be crucial early on. With thirteen runners, there'll be plenty of pace, and the key will be getting a good position turning for home rather than where you start.
Value Picks and Potential Dangers
At the prices, Millstatt Abbey for Noel Williams looks potentially overpriced. Gavin Sheehan is a canny rider who excels on horses that need a waiting ride, and Williams has a decent record with mares at this level. The distance winner tag suggests she's proven at the trip.
The Flaggy Shore is another who could outrun her odds. Ben Clarke's yard has been flying under the radar, and Ben Jones is claiming valuable weight allowances. Sometimes these smaller yards can nick a big prize when the stars align.
The danger horse has to be Orestina for Paul Robson. Ryan Mania's booking catches the eye – he wouldn't travel this far unless he fancied his chances. Robson's northern-trained runners often improve for a change of scenery.
Who Will Win the British Stallion Studs EBF Mares' Listed Race?
Ti'mamzel looks the most likely winner despite carrying the penalty. The Moore stable's confidence in running her with the extra weight suggests she's improved since her last victory. Caoilin Quinn's 7lb claim effectively reduces her burden, and class usually tells in these Listed contests.
What's the Best Each-Way Value in This Race?
Gidge represents the best each-way value at likely odds. Fergal O'Brien's six-year-old has the experience edge over most of these, and older mares often excel in stamina tests. Jonathan Burke's positive riding style should suit her down to the ground.
Will the Going Favour Any Particular Runner?
The good to soft conditions will suit the entire field, but horses with proven form on similar ground hold obvious advantages. The soft patches on the shared ground could catch out any runners who prefer a sounder surface, making course experience potentially crucial.
The Verdict
This looks a competitive renewal of a race that often produces future stars. Ti'mamzel sets the standard with her penalty, but several of these have the ability to cause an upset. The ground conditions should ensure we see a true test of stamina, and the Ripon hill will sort out the genuine stayers from the rest.
My selection is Ti'mamzel to justify favouritism, with Gidge as the each-way value and Lune Brillante as the danger from the Skelton yard. It's the type of race where the market leaders usually fight out the finish, but don't be surprised if one of the outsiders sneaks into the frame at a big price.
